Global leader in financial services and US firm, JP Morgan has stated that the probable debt restructuring of Ghana’s debt would further weaken the Ghana cedi, even if an increase in Foreign Exchange Forward Auction sizes or reversal of the foreign exchange (FX) purchase policy results in short-term respite for the cedi.
In its Emerging Market Quick Take on Ghana cedi’s performance, it said the Bank of Ghana’s decision to purchase dollars from mining and oil companies, inadvertently reducing forex availability within the inter-bank market is one of the reasons behind the falling value of the cedi.
It also said the loss of confidence domestically has resulted in a significant drain from the financial account, even though portfolio outflows have been relatively limited.
“The cedi has now weakened by around 60% against the US dollar this year, as uncertainties about the need for, and extent of, debt restructuring increased. The drain of FX reserves year-to-date means the Bank of Ghana (BoG) now has limited firepower to smooth FX volatility. However, we believe the main trigger for the move to 14.875 (mid) in spot over recent days can be traced to BoG’s decision to purchase dollars from mining and oil companies, inadvertently reducing FX availability within the inter-bank market.”
“Although the current account deficit (CAD) is only moderately wider, the loss of confidence domestically has resulted in a significant drain from the financial account, even though portfolio outflows have been relatively limited. Based on our risk-reward scorecard, Ghana now looks attractive, but we expect concerns about the scope of debt restructuring to continue dominating, potentially leading to even more GHS weakness, even if an increase in FX forward auction sizes or reversal of the FX purchase policy results in short-term respite for the cedi”, it added.
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